Forest Scenario Modelling

Programme

Foresight and Information

Description

The aim of the project is to develop a large-scale forestry scenario model (EFISCEN) to project the development of European forests under various scenarios. With the model, EFI will be able to produce, on a relatively short term, new predictions of the state of European forests and wood product supply for the next 100 years. The result of this project, which is called the base line study, will show the development of the European forest resource under the following scenarios:

A business-as-usual scenario in which the current harvesting levels will be run for the next 50 years;
A scenario determining the maximum sustainable wood production potential of European forests;
A nature conservation scenario in which 10% of the forest area in each country will be set aside for nature. The aim is to assess whether the other 90% of the forest can sustain the current harvesting levels.

Results are relevant both for the national level forest sectors, and for the European level policies.