Technical Report 10

Simulation of long-term dynamics of forest wildfires in Russia with Marcovian model

Andrei P. Kirilenko
Internal Report 10
European Forest Institute, 2002
29 p.

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Abstract

Warmer climates can lead to numerous changes in forests. One of the expected effects is an increased number of wildfires as a consequence of longer fire danger period and lower fuel moisture. A counteracting, yet a more volatile factor is increasing summer precipitation and changing precipitation pattern. To estimate quantitatively the changes in the long-term dynamics of area and number of wildfires, a probabilistic model of forest wildfires is suggested. The model simulates the events of fire ignition and fuel burning in a 0.5x0.5o geographical latitude and longitude grid, covering the territory of Russia. Data for model identification were extracted from a forest fire database, covering a large part of Russian forest territory. Simulations are based on CRU historical climate database and on IMAGE future climate scenarios.

Keywords: Climate change, forest fires, Marcovian model